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🐺Everybody's workin' for the weekend

Author

Noah Major
April 14, 2025

Chain Report

Bitcoin (BTC)

Chain Activity
Bitcoin’s blockchain is chugging along like a trusty old rig—steady but not flashy. Daily transactions are averaging 600,000, with block times holding at ~10 minutes. Hash rate’s near all-time highs (650 EH/s), signaling miners are still grinding despite halving pressures. X posts show HODLer sentiment strong, but retail activity’s quieter than last month’s futures spike (+64% volume week-on-week). No major congestion, but fees are creeping up ($2-5 per tx) as ETF flows drive demand.

DeFi Volume & TVL
Bitcoin’s DeFi scene is niche but growing. TVL across BTC-based protocols (think Lightning, Stacks) sits at ~$1.2B, a speck compared to ETH or SOL. DeFi volume’s low, with ~$100M weekly, mostly via wrapped BTC on Ethereum or Solana. X buzz highlights institutional moves—like Zeus Network bridging BTC to Solana DeFi—but it’s early days. Bitcoin’s more a store-of-value king than a DeFi playground.

Hot News

  • Strategic Reserve Buzz: Trump’s crypto reserve plan, including BTC, is still making waves. X posts are hyped, but no concrete moves yet—sentiment’s bullish if it lands.

  • ETF Inflows: Spot BTC ETFs saw $1.8B in net inflows last week, per Bloomberg. If CPI data Wednesday cools, expect more capital flooding in.

  • Mining Consolidation: Rumors of M&A among miners (RIOT, MARA) are swirling on X, with BTC’s price dictating margins.

Outlook: BTC’s chain is rock-solid, but DeFi’s a sideshow. If macro fears ease (watch Friday’s jobs data), $62K resistance could break, juicing onchain activity. Sub-$55K, and miners sweat.

Ethereum (ETH)

Chain Activity
Ethereum’s the DeFi beast, but it’s feeling the heat. Daily transactions are 1.2M, with gas fees moderate (20 gwei). Layer-2s like Arbitrum and Base are eating market share, handling 3x mainnet volume. X posts note a dip in retail activity (-10% wallet addresses week-on-week), but futures volume jumped 58% recently, signaling trader bets. Smart contract calls are steady, but SOL’s closing the gap.

DeFi Volume & TVL
Ethereum’s DeFi empire reigns supreme, with $58B in TVL—53% of the market. Weekly DeFi volume’s ~$90B, driven by Uniswap, Aave, and Curve. Stablecoin transfers (USDC, USDT) dominate, but SOL’s DEXes are nipping at ETH’s heels. Berachain’s rise ($3.2B TVL) stole some shine, and X chatter suggests L2 scaling’s diluting mainnet hype. Still, ETH processes 52% of DeFi’s $50B TVL pie.

Hot News

  • ETF Staking Push: Franklin Templeton’s Crypto Index ETF (87% BTC, 13% ETH) and 21Shares’ staking proposal could unlock ETH ETF inflows. SEC’s call looms.

  • Hoodi Update: Ethereum’s latest upgrade chatter is fading, but X posts hint at scalability tweaks driving dev interest.

  • Price Dip: ETH’s down 15% since last week’s $2,500 peak, per Forbes. Macro fears (trade wars, DXY slide) are weighing heavy.

Outlook: ETH’s DeFi grip is ironclad, but SOL’s speed and L2 competition are real threats. A soft CPI could spark a rally past $2,500; hot inflation might drag it to $2,000. Watch L2 volumes—they’re the future.

Solana (SOL)

Chain Activity
Solana’s a transaction monster, clocking ~50M daily txs—more than BTC and ETH combined on peak days. TPS hovers at 3,000, with Firedancer upgrades looming to push it higher. Active addresses are up 20% month-on-month, fueled by meme coin mania (PENGU, TRUMP). X posts scream SOL’s DEX dominance, though stablecoin volume lags ETH and Tron. Fees are dirt-cheap (<$0.01), keeping degens hooked.

DeFi Volume & TVL
Solana’s DeFi is on fire, with $9.77B in TVL (7% of market) and weekly volume hitting $100B+ in Q1. Raydium alone accounts for $2.59B TVL, and 24H DEX volume topped $2.4B recently, outpacing ETH’s $1.89B. Growth’s explosive—TVL’s up 600% YoY—but ETH’s still 6x bigger. X posts hype SOL as the “go-to” for dApps, but network outages are a lingering ghost.

Hot News

  • DEX Surge: Solana’s 5B DEX txs in Q1 crushed ETH, per Bitcoin News. Meme coins and NFT launches (Pudgy Penguins) are rocket fuel.

  • Price Correction: SOL’s down 16% to ~$112 after tariff panic, per Cointelegraph. X sentiment’s split—some see a dip to buy, others smell blood.

  • Institutional Play: Zeus Network’s $5.9B TVL push and institutional BTC bridging are turning heads on X. SOL’s becoming a DeFi hub.

Outlook: Solana’s chain is a speed demon, and DeFi’s stealing ETH’s thunder. If macro stabilizes, SOL could hit $150; a crash risks $90. Watch meme coin volume—it’s a leading indicator.

Market Watch: DeFi and Crypto Stocks Outlook for April 14–20, 2025

Buckle up, chain riders—here’s what’s brewing for DeFi markets and crypto stocks like Coinbase ($COIN), MicroStrategy ($MSTR), and Riot Platforms ($RIOT) this week. The macro storm’s still raging, and it’s shaking the blockchain like a bad mint gone wrong. Let’s dive into the signals and noise.

DeFi Markets: Volatility Stays King
DeFi’s been a wild ride, with total value locked (TVL) hovering around $52 billion globally. This week, expect trade war tremors and dollar weakness to keep things choppy. ETH, the DeFi backbone, is under pressure after last week’s USD slide—posts on X peg sentiment as cautious, with retail volume dipping. If the DXY (dollar index) keeps softening (down ~3% last week), capital could trickle into crypto, nudging ETH and DeFi tokens like UNI or AAVE higher. But don’t bet the farm—geopolitical headlines could flip the script fast, tanking risk assets if fear spikes.

Key DeFi trends to watch:

  • Stablecoin Surge: USDC and others might see heavier flows if USD hedges gain traction. Stablecoin revenue for platforms like Coinbase (think USDC) could tick up.

  • DEX Volumes: Decentralized exchanges (14% of CEX volumes in Q1) could climb if regulatory noise pushes traders onchain. Uniswap and Curve are ones to eye.

  • Macro Risks: If inflation data (CPI due Wednesday) surprises upward, expect DeFi yields to tighten as borrowing costs rise. A softer CPI could juice liquidity, lifting TVL.

Crypto Stocks: $COIN, $MSTR, $RIOT Under the Scope
Crypto stocks are tethered to Bitcoin and ETH price swings, and this week’s no different. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Coinbase ($COIN): After a rough Q3 miss (EPS $0.28 vs. $0.41 expected), Coinbase is banking on Q4 trading volume spikes. X chatter suggests retail’s skittish, but $COIN’s stablecoin revenue (up 43% YoY to $246.9M) offers a buffer. If ETH or BTC rallies, trading fees could push shares toward $200 (52-week high: $276.38). A bearish labor report Friday could drag it to $150. Watch for SEC lawsuit updates—any clarity might spark a pop.

  • MicroStrategy ($MSTR): MSTR’s a leveraged BTC bet, holding 279,420 Bitcoin. Its “21/21 Plan” to raise $42B for more BTC buys screams conviction, but a $340M Q3 loss shows the risk. If Bitcoin breaks $60K, $MSTR could test $400 (from $377 now). If macro fears hit, expect a dip to $300. Volatility’s baked in—X posts scream “HODL” or “overbought.”

  • Riot Platforms ($RIOT): Bitcoin miners like RIOT live or die by BTC price and hash rates. Holding 10,928 BTC, RIOT’s sensitive to energy costs and halving effects. A BTC pump could lift shares past $15 (now ~$12); a crash could sink it to $8. Consolidation in mining might spark M&A rumors—keep ears open.

Other Players: Marathon Digital ($MARA) and Block ($SQ) are worth a glance. MARA’s 20,000+ BTC stash mirrors RIOT’s play, while Block’s Cash App BTC sales could shine if retail dives in. Both face the same macro headwinds—weak labor or inflation spikes could hit hard.

What to Watch

  • Wednesday’s CPI: Hot inflation could crush risk assets; cooler numbers might spark a DeFi rally.

  • Friday’s Jobs Data: Weak payrolls signal recession fears, tanking $COIN and miners.

  • Geopolitics: Trade war escalations could drive safe-haven flows to gold, not crypto, pressuring DeFi yields.

  • BTC/ETH Moves: BTC above $62K or ETH past $2,500 could ignite stocks and DEXes. Sub-$55K BTC spells pain.

The Vibe
Uncertainty’s the only certainty. DeFi’s got room to grow if dollars keep fleeing USD, but macro shocks could slam the brakes. $COIN’s a trading volume play, $MSTR’s a BTC proxy, and $RIOT’s a high-beta gamble. Stay nimble—hedge with stablecoins or cash if the world gets weirder. The chain’s alive, but it’s a jungle out there.

From the degen corner:

Markets Go Wild, NFTs Hold Steady (Sort Of)

What a week—markets doing loop-de-loops like a bad NFT drop gone viral. At first peek, the big dogs of NFTs looked unshaken: CryptoPunks popped +5.2% in ETH, Mutant Apes climbed +5.1%, and Lil Pudgys jumped +6.5%. Not bad, right? But zoom out, and the USD picture’s uglier—those same collections tanked 6-9%.

What gives? ETH took a beating against the dollar as trade war jitters rattled the cages. Plus, the dollar itself got wobbly, with the DXY sliding ~3% as spooked investors bailed for gold and yen.

But here’s the spark in the dark: those ETH gains mean our onchain degens are still stacking bids, macro chaos be damned. And if the dollar keeps crumbling, we might see capital flood back into crypto—ETH could moon, and those NFT floors might just tag along.

For now, it’s a foggy road. One thing’s crystal, though: as the world’s money starts dodging Uncle Sam, the waves’ll hit everything—from dusty treasury bonds to your favorite pixelated JPGs. Stay sharp out there.

Referrals to be aware (farming):